Celestial Lucre It's economics for most. For others, the future of commodities is written in the stars.

When Manoj Jain, a Hyderabad-based bulk bullion dealer,frantically called up Anurag Tripathi, a Mumbai-based commodityanalyst on a hot June morning, the question was the usual "Should Ibuy silver?", as the prices seemed to be showing an upward turn aftera flat run. Tripathi warned him not to touch the white metal. "It'slikely to show a dip in the next two days. I think you should waitfor some more time," he advised. Nothing unusual in that apart fromthe fact that Tripathi's reasoning was based not on the usualparameters of technical price analysis, global demand and supply, andfluctuations; but on planetary calculations. His advice to Jain:"Venus is sitting in Cancer at the moment. As a result, prices willcontinue to slip or remain flat. It's worthwhile to wait for a moreopportune moment."

Yes, believe it or not, investors and traders actually sometimessuspend their faith in fundamental and technical analysis and puttheir money where the stars dictate. Sceptics and rationalists willfrown at this logic, but Jain followed the advice and did not buy thewhite metal. Tripathi's is the last word for Jain, whose family hasbeen tracking stars for trade-related advice for more than fourgenerations. Explains Tripathi: "Silver is usually under theinfluence of Venus and has a moon sign of Cancer. Since Venus is asoft and kind planet, when it passes through Cancer, which is thezodiac of silver, it has a soothing effect on the metal. The impactof a tender planet on a metal usually translates into a fall in itsprice."

Tripathi and others of his ilk have a sizeable following amongcommodity traders. "If Venus cruises through a harsh zodiac like Leo,there will be a bullish effect on the metal and prices will shoot upin the short term. Also, if Venus along with Sun passes throughCancer, it will have the same effect," says Tripathi, who predictscommodity fluctuations on an hourly basis on celestial combinations.

Jain says that the planets have seldom let him down. "Predictionsbased on planetary movements have proved accurate about 80 per centof the time," he says. And his is not a one-off phenomenon. SaysShyamal Gupta, Head (Institutional Business), Kotak Commodities:"Though most people will not admit it, a large number of marketplayers do refer to astrological calculations and quietly rely onthem." Gupta, who was earlier with the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX)as Senior VP (Product Knowledge Mangement and InstitutionalBusiness), asserts his faith in planets saying: "Often, such reportsare contrary to mainstream market trends based on technicalprojections. There have been instances when planetary calculationshave helped investors make a fortune when the markets appeared to bein a bear grip."

Some institutions also seem to have jumped onto this celestialbandwagon, though not overtly. Tripathi, who is an analyst with theNational Spot Exchange, bagged the post primarily on the basis of hisability to gauge the effects of Saturn, Sun, Venus and other stars oncommodities.

Here's How it Works

Tripathi calls his methodology "astrological projection theory",which, he claims, enables him to read the future direction ofcommodity prices. "The market trend indications under this method arebased on a series of mathematical calculations, which are integratedwith other market principles of analysis in a structured format," heexplains. The planetary positions are calculated meticulously and arematched with historical trends.

But sceptics also abound. Atul Shah, Head (Commodities), EmkayCommotrade, says most astrological predictions are inaccurate. "It'spure chance when predictions work in someone's favour." Shah analysescommodities based on factors like demand and supply in the USmarkets, us Federal rates, the manufacturing index and unemploymentdata, among others, though sometimes, he does rely on nature for hispredictions. "For commodities like petro-products, predictions aremade after taking into account occurrence of calamities such ashurricanes, which affect production at refineries andtransportation."

Having said that, Shah, however, qualifies his apparent lack offaith, saying: "Astrological predictions can be scientific in naturebut I doubt if today's astrologers are good enough to deciphercelestial messages."

Ashok Goel, a stocks and commodities advisor and owner of Delhi-based Goel Capital, also hedges his bets. "The immediate movementsprojected by these astrologers are good, but long positioning movesbased on these predictions often fail. Sometimes when the twoprojections--astrological and technical--show some sort ofcongruence, I have relied on the astro-projections for a kill." Buthe is quick to add: "You cannot completely rely on them."

Semi-sceptics like Shah and Goel get a riposte from the sereneghats of the Ganga in Benaras. Chanrama Pandey, Head (AstrologyDepartment), Benaras Hindu University, asserts: "Astrology is a vastscience that involves physics, mathematics and biochemistry. It'strue that very few people have in-depth knowledge of astrology, butthat does not make the subject a hoax."

Explaining the influence of planets with the theory of resonance,Pandey says: "There are certain basic elements which are present inall commodities, substances, planets and life forms in the universe.All the objects have particular frequencies that cause them toresonate under the magnetic flux and radiation of various planetsdepending on the planets' positions." This has a beneficial or amalefic effect on all commodities and life forms on earth. "Astrologyhas always been a guiding force for the Rs 15,000-crore a daycommodities market. The panchangs (almanacs) published by a host ofsmall publishing houses have been guiding businesses in India foryears," says Gupta.

The annual turnover of the panchang market is about Rs 5 crore,according to market players. "Our calendars have been in demand sincethe 60s and today, across India, we sell almost 10 lakh copies of ourcalendar, which comes out twice a year," says Anand Agarwal, owner ofthe Benaras-based publishing group Savitri Thakur, which comes outwith the famous Thakur Prasad Panchang and Chinta Haran Jantri. "Thecalendars are not highly priced but the volumes are reasonably good,"says Agarwal.

Rationalists, however, dismiss this phenomenon as so much moremumbo jumbo. Says Prabir Ghosh, General Secretary, Science andRationalists' Association of India: "Astrology and the astrologersare a complete hoax. How can stars alter anything? In the greaterinterest of society, this profession should be declared illegal." Butthat is unlikely to shake the deep-rooted belief in the powers of thestars which has been ingrained in the psyche of many Indians overseveral millennia. By the looks of it, the Indian commodities marketwill continue to shimmer under the guidance of the heavens.

CHECK IT OUT YOURSELF

Anurag Tripathi has made the following three predictions for BT.Will the market oblige him?

GOLD AND SILVER: Prices are likely to fall between July 3 and July 6, 2007, because Venus and Ketu come together in Leo. However,the influence of the Revathi Nakshatra on July 8 will nudge prices upfor 2-3 days from July 9, but they will fall again from July 12-17.

CRUDE OIL: Prices are expected to fall from July 4-14 becauseVenus and Ketu come together in Leo.

COTTON: Prices will show a weak trend from July 4-6, but willreverse this trend and rise again from July 9-13 because of the sameplanetary combination as above.

Editor: In our next issue, we will let you know the fate ofTripathi's predictions.